“ It’s really the coming together of these various drivers of change that then leads to disruptions in the labor market.Ī futurist echoes the idea that we will all have to become as agile as possible and “have many forms of talent and work that you can provide the economy”. Other such drivers as climate change, the rise of the middle class in many emerging markets, aging populations in certain parts of Europe and East Asia, and the changing aspirations of women as factors that will have significant impacts on jobs. It should be noted that automation isn’t the only phenomenon having an impact on the job market. Nasscom predicted that automation would result in 20% - 25% reduction in IT jobs in three years. Amongst the most severly affected will be the IT industry. In India, we must brace for the impact of these trends. The major problem in handling this is what do you skill the unemployed for when 85% of the jobs that will exist in 2030 haven't been invented as yet? Again the number of new jobs created will not be same as those lost. They’re composing original music, for example, and beating professional players at complex board games with creative moves. As Susskind notes, “We make assumptions about the indispensability of human beings”, but machines are already doing things we thought only humans might be able to. Beyond that, however, the picture is far less clear: long-term career planning with any confidence will be difficult. The 2020s are going to be a decade not of unemployment, but of redeployment. Least at risk of automation, which includes recreational therapists, first-line supervisors of mechanics, installers, repairers, occupational therapists and healthcare social workers. The second area is occupations that involve building complex relationships with people: nurses, for example, or a business role that requires you to build close relationships with clients. So, in 20 years who knows how far it’s going to go?” There are already computers that can paint original works of art. We can’t guarantee you that in 20 years a computer won’t be the most creative entity on the planet. For now, humans are still best at creativity but there’s a caveat there. The first is jobs that involve “genuine creativity, such as being an artist, being a scientist, developing a new business strategy”. Wait! What jobs will be safe from robots? According to a recent report by Deloitte, more than 100,000 jobs in the legal sector have a high chance of being automated in the next 20 years.įast food cooks also face an 81% probability of having their jobs replaced by robots like Flippy, an AI-powered kitchen assistant which is already flipping burgers in a number of CaliBurger restaurants. Robots will also take over the more repetitive tasks in professions such as law, with paralegals and legal assistants facing a 94% probability of having their jobs computerized. Indeed, technology has already started doing our taxes: H&R Block, one of America’s largest tax preparation providers, is now using Watson, IBM’s artificial intelligence platform. Tax preparation, which involves systematically processing large amounts of predictable data, also faces a 99% chance of being automated. Telemarketing, for example, which is highly routine, has a 99% probability of automation. You may have already noticed an increase in irritating robocalls. But autonomous cars will be programmed to adhere to local laws, and the size of traffic police force can shrink substantially. autonomous cars will result in direct job losses for drivers of taxis, trucks and buses. The real numbers will be several times larger. Corresponding figures for other nations are 77% for China, 69% for India and 65% for Argentina. Martin Ford, futurist and author of The rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, explains the jobs that are most at risk are those which “are on some level routine, repetitive and predictable”.Automation will put 47% of current US jobs at risk. These technologies will rewrite global competition, wealth generation and employment. This imbalance is flooding research in AI and robotics with money. This amounts to a 16x drop from the unit cost of labour. The unit cost of capital has dropped to less than 0.6 times the unit cost of labour. interestingly, one of the key drivers of these spends is the falling cost of capital. Will this machine technology make human workers obsolete? If so what is the solution? Investments in automation are pouring and Mckinsey estimates that tech giants worldwide spent anywhere between $20 - 30 billion on AI in 2016. What we had seen in science fiction films and serials a few years back are no more exciting fantasies of a child but are going to be a part of the present-day output from robots, artificial intelligence, and driverless cars. NEW SKILLS REQUIRED BY HUMANS DUE TO AUTOMATION
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